The Slums of Sadr City are said to have quietened now. Andrew Sullivan weighs up the situation, and on balance sees opportunity not failure. It's hardly surprising that a place like Sadr city (formerly, and cruelly, Saddam City) should produce the violence we've seen. These are people who have been living en masse (over two million of them) in a state of deprivation due to their long-time perceived religious 'inferiority' to the ruling Sunnis, and that's not ameliorated overnight. Al-Sadr's faction (probably with the blessing of Iran) has arisen as a militant reflection of that rankling tension, exploiting nationalism and distrust of the Americans. Al-Sadr can't trust democracy (via Neverdock) to give him the power he craves, so this is his means of making an impact and building up his profile. As Zeyad demonstrates by his November post, al- Sadr has been hindering the monumental task of the coalition in Baghad's vast Shia area for quite a while now. If the Coalition can deal with him effectively, that will be a major 'coup-in-reverse' for them.


'They're not an army ...They're a bunch of looters'- the comment of one Iraqi policeman- certainly brings a little perspective to the 'uprising'. I suppose it's been a while since parts of the Shia had that magic rush of looting frenzy, and they've been missing it. The darker reality (apart from the carnage) is that the rhetoric obviously going around about the Shia areas being 'liberated' represents a potential major loss of face for the coalition in the short term. The deaths that have taken place were tragic, regrettable and possibly preventable- and will give a greater pretext for Shia grievances. They also demonstrate that Shia malcontents are serious enough to kill and be killed. It may be an opportunity, but it is also true that repeated failures to move forward peacefully cannot be sustained.


The real test is whether these disturbances prove to be unrepeatable. Some interesting perspective from the Telegraph here and a very fine account of the disturbances from the Washington Post here. Update Samizdata discusses the 'opportunity'. Meanwhile various sources indicate continued fighting in different parts of Iraq. I'm not sure if this is just catching up with events, or new events arising.