Wednesday, July 14, 2004


Well, Butler didn't really say very much, did he? (I've only scanned the report, but I've seen the man's public pronouncements and heard a bit more since.) Whatever he said that seemed to trap Tony Blair or his Government (no real sharp intakes of breath- so different to Hutton) was followed with a wry smile by some kind of escape route for those concerned- and no-one was to blame.

I think Tony Blair chose his men deliberately (but fairly) when he selected Hutton and Butler.

The BBC's favoured approach in reporting Butler's view of the intelligence has been been to emphasize its 'serious flaws' and that it was 'unreliable'- yet the fact that Butler denied any individual responsibility indicates that no-one either fabricated or was notoriously incompetent. This has to mean that the intelligence was not so flawed as all that, otherwise how bad does it have to be before someone is to blame?

One of the important things Butler said was that the claim that Saddam sought uranium from Niger was based on good intelligence ie. he believes it happened. I am sure that one fact- that our expert opinion believes that Saddam was clandestinely seeking materials for nuclear purposes under the nose of the IAEA- would be a clincher for many people if it were put to them directly (Belgravia Despatch has more- and cites Butler specifically- via Glenn).

Contrasting Butler's findings with those of the Hutton enquiry I'd say that in the case of Gilligan we have someone claiming a fabrication of evidence- which was found to be categorically untrue. In the Butler report we find a number of assertions that were not fabricated but were inadequately contextualised- but they were consistent with the thesis that Saddam was seeking offensive weaponry and capabilities. The intelligence, and the politician's expression of it, doesn't match the reality we know at present, but it isn't inconsistent with a general thesis we know to have been true and which justified strong action against Iraq. So, Gilligan lied (and so have the 'stoppers') and our politicians aren't as competent as we would like, but we live in a democracy- Hutton and Butler in a nutshell.

And that's ok- but I wouldn't want to leave it there. It will take more than generally about roughly right to win a war on terror- and I think the establishment hasn't woken up to that yet. On the other hand, how much more sleepy would they have had to have been if they hadn't followed up their threats against Saddam's regime? Frighteningly so it seems to me.

Elsewhere...

Brownie at Harry's Place has a simple conclusion to make (but others dissent). Norm likes what he hears from Tony Blair- and so, in fact, do I.

 
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